All or Nothing Forecast: Winter Wonderland in Temple?

Who doesn't love a snow day? A day to stay inside, with your favorite cup of coffee or hot cocoa, its perfect. To some, however, these days are nothing to be excited about, even too cold. I will tell you as a forecaster, it will be cold. The upcoming pattern will bring us very cold conditions, potentially to an extreme extent. At this point, there is no question about that.

Today's blog, however, is going to focus more on the wintery precipitation we could see. Regardless of whether the snow brings you a sense of childhood joy in a winter wonderland, or ruins your mood, everyone wants to know if we will find Temple covered in a white coating.

I will discuss our setup for snow with ingredients accounted for, potential

timeframes for snow, and my forecast.

Setup and Ingredients...

I want to start this section with a notice, this section will be a bit more meteorological than most of my blogs.

(Pivotal Weather)

These are our temperatures around the time any potential storm would be moving through using the American Model. Remember, timing and temperatures can change from where they are now. As seen, temperatures will likely be right around freezing. This would be conducive for at least a mix of rain and snow. As the system continues to move, it pulls cold air from around the backside of the system, ushering in cooler air for us. This would likely make it more probable to see snow rather than rain. Based on that, and onset of rain which would quickly change to snow would be expected.

Let's take a look at the Euro Model.

(Pivotal Weather)

This is a map at the same time using the Euro. As seen, our temperatures are a bit cooler yet there is no precipitation in the area. Our area is, in fact, under high pressure, quite the opposite. This would mean no snow, but rather even colder temperatures than already forecast.

Here is a map to help you visualize what we are looking at.

These are our 2 possible scenarios regarding this event. All or Nothing idea, 1 scenario brings us tons of snow, while the other none. I'm leaning more toward the southern track at this time due to likely cold air being in place, shunting the low south and snow chances with it. Either scenario could occur, as well as anything in between. I will keep everyone updated on future changes to track and expected snowfall.

Timeframes for Potential Snowfall...

There are multiple different times in which we could see snow/winter precipitation. The first could be as soon as Sunday. This threat has grown increasingly unlikely for our area, as the low has trended to sweep further north than earlier forecasts. In fact, it is more possible we see severe weather than snow on Sunday. It should still be monitored, however, as Far north Georgia could still see snowflakes.

The main time of concern that we are watching is around the 9th, Thursday. That timeframe is the main one we are talking about in this article. Snow chances could bleed into the 10th, Friday as well.

(CPC)

This is our risk for heavy snow during that timeframe. As you can see, the CPC has put us at a Slight Risk of heavy Snow. This indicated that heavy snow is possible but too uncertain to designate a higher-risk area. This also indicates that meteorologists are watching this situation and also think that Snow could occur within the region. All in all, I think heavy snow is certainly possible but not necessarily likely at this time. I will keep everyone informed as this situation progresses.

I think another three of snow could materialize on the 13th, yet that is too far out to make a strong forecast for. I will continue to assess the situation at that timeframe and make forecasts if needed.

My Forecast...

My forecast is as follows: A slight chance of a snow shower Sunday into Monday, rather unlikely unless conditions change. A high-risk high-reward-esque setup late next week, with a high ceiling for snow potential yet a very low floor. It remains unclear which scenario will exactly pan out but I will stick to a lower-end solution and stay <1 inch of snowfall. Snowfall risks will continue after that but remain too far out to make a true forecast, just remember that more snow chances could still exist after these 2.

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Author: Remington Diedrich