Tropics update, Warm and Dry returns?

While this rain recently has been relieving, major flash flooding occurred in parts of Alabama and Columbus, GA. Up to 10 inches of rainfall fell through the past 7 days across parts of Southern GA (Ga Water). This major rainfall over such a short time brought multiple flash flood warnings to the area. Our area only received up to 1 inch of rain. Today is likely the last day we are going to see major rainfall and a dry pattern is expected to begin early this week. One problem in the forecast is future tropical impacts off the East Coast and from Central America. Today, we are going to discuss the incoming change in conditions along with future tropical impacts these may bring.

Pattern Change...

With the passing of Hurricane Francine, all the rain we have been experiencing is expected to finally move out. This is expected to bring a dry and increasingly warm pattern into the area.

(Weatherbell GFS)

These are our high and low temperatures for the week. As seen above, temperatures increase through the week into the 80s. These temperatures will likely kick the A/Cs back into high gear as another summer-like blast of heat scorches the area. This will also likely be accompanied by some dryer conditions.

(WeatherBell)

This is our rain forecast map for the week. You can see most of any rain stays well south of us. These dryer conditions will likely sprout and even develop drought yet again in the area. As the week progresses, the chance of rain very slowly increases (yet likely remains negligible until the end of the week). These rain chances depend on the evolution of 2 incoming tropical areas of interest (known as tropical waves).

Tropics...

Ah yes, a word we are all too familiar with at this point. Tropical concerns continue to rise late this week and weekend. A system along the east coast is expected to impact the Carolinas and curve north, not posing a threat to the area. The main area of concern lies in Central America.

(Weathernerds)

As seen here, a low is expected to come from Central America and track north. The specific track is unknown and the NHC has not issued forecasts on this system yet. however, given its general location and track north, it would be safe to assume impacts here are possible. It will likely come outside of my 7-day forecast window but could bring widespread rainfall. I will keep you all updated on future impacts from this storm.

Forecast...

Here is my weekly forecast for our area! Expect dry conditions through the week with increasing temperatures. We will likely see multiple days of wonderful sunny weather before this weekend, as clouds and moisture finally make a return to the area. Not expecting any major rain this week, but due to uncertainty with tropical development, decided a small rain chance on Saturday was appropriate. Otherwise, expect a wonderful week of pleasant temperatures and sunny weather!

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Author: Remington Diedrich

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